...or maybe not.

Some brave politician needs to do this with the federal budget:

I have been planning for quite some time to write the ultimate post on global warming. My busy schedule in addition to the complexity of the subject have precluded me from writing that grand post. So now I write this post, which is less than ultimate though still worthy of your consideration :-)

The fundamental underlying issue in the global warming debate is the tension between scientific understanding and policy creation in society. On matters such as this, politicians have the unfortunate job of creating policy based on how they (as nonscientists) view scientific consensus on a matter. The problem, of course, is that scientific consensus is not a black-and-white thing.

With that basis in mind, I need to be further convinced by those scientists pushing a human-caused global warming theory. Here are some questions for which I'd like to see answers:

- Do rises in the earth's atmospheric carbon levels cause global warming, or does global warming cause the observed rises? (or if some of both, to what degree?)... Al Gore shows the CO2/temperature chart for the last few hundred thousand years and sure enough, the two go together perfectly. But he assumes in the movie that carbon causes the warming. I need proof and/or logic beyond that assumption.

- What time lags exist between carbon and temperature inclines? Answers to this question could be dispositive on the first question above or they could indicate to us how the earth should begin to warm in response to human-produced CO2.

- What is the exact relationship between carbon and temperature levels? Assuming that carbon increases cause temperature increases and not predominantly the other way around, is the relationship linear or logarithmic?

- Finally, what other harmful effects are potentially being caused by the rise in atmospheric carbon levels?

Let's build the case for a cogent policy.

Gilbert Keith Chesterton was born on this date in 1874. Here are a few good quotes of his:

"All conservatism is based upon the idea that if you leave things alone you leave them as they are. But you do not. If you leave a thing alone you leave it to a torrent of change." - GKC

"And when it rains on your parade, look up rather than down. Without the rain, there would be no rainbow." -GKC

"Christianity has not been tried and found wanting; it has been found difficult and not tried." -GKC

"Do not free a camel of the burden of his hump; you may be freeing him from being a camel." -GKC

"
Youth is the period in which a man can be hopeless. The end of every episode is the end of the world. But the power of hoping through everything, the knowledge that the soul survives its adventures, that great inspiration comes to the middle-aged." - GKC

Here are a couple photo albums that might be of interest. The first includes photos I took this Friday and Sunday at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway for Carb. Day and for the Indy 500. The second includes a few photos of Indiana wineries I visited a couple of weeks ago with a friend.

Carb Day / Indy 500 - 2007

Indy wine tour 5.18.07

Emerson was born on this date in 1803... Here are a few good quotes:

"A friend is one before whom I may think aloud."

"All I have seen teaches me to trust the Creator for all I have not seen."

"Beware when the great God lets loose a thinker on this planet."

Ha. That's what he told People anyways.

Motherf...ing snakes on a plane!

Well, I finished Kurt Vonnegut's Slaughterhouse-Five today and now I have started a very different book: American Soldier by General Tommy Franks.

Shortly, I will post my thoughts on the Vonnegut novel.

According to this national gas price map, Indiana's average gas prices are among the three highest states in the nation. This is surprising because Indiana's prices historically have placed it in the middle of the pack, even leaning on the low side. A year ago when I checked this map, the coasts had the highest prices. Now the midwest is highest.

So what has changed?

That's the big question. I've seen nothing in the national or local news that would indicate an answer. Here's my theory:

Though oil prices have dropped a bit in the last 2 weeks, gas prices have risen. Analysts explain the rising prices by saying that U.S. refining capacity is being crunched by high demand. In past years, when capacity was not taxed as much, oil prices drove gas prices in a more parallel fashion. In that context, states like Indiana that had a relatively low gas tax also enjoyed overall lower gas prices. But now that refining capacity is crunched, distribution is a much greater factor in the geographic price of gas.

But that's just a theory. Anyone know anything more about this?

The tide is turning against corn-based ethanol. Reality and politics are setting in against it.

The alleged environmental benefits of the use of ethanol have been called into serious question. Corn-based ethanol is an inefficient fuel, taking nearly as much energy to produce and convert as it yields. And now, as was inevitable, there is evidence that ethanol production had driven up the price of corn in the U.S. and worldwide. In turn, higher corn prices lead to higher food prices broadly across the board.

On the political side, corn-based ethanol no longer enjoys the unanimous support among the nation's farmers. Corn farmers would still support ethanol, of course, as it keeps prices high, but chicken farmers are beginning to oppose it because it raises the prices of their feed.

First cracks in the dam...

Seven years ago, a British court ruled that the UK's military could not refuse to allow gay people to openly serve. And now? As the Volokh Conspiracy notes, "no news is good news." There has been no "harassment, discord, blackmail, bullying or an erosion of unit cohesion or military effectiveness" as critics expected.

It's time for the U.S. to reexamine the 'don't ask, don't tell' policy, especially considering President Bush's plan to increase the size of the permanent army.

Some promising news from China on the internet media front:

China will back down from a plan to require bloggers to use their real names when they register blogs, following an outcry over the proposal from the Internet industry, official media reported Tuesday.

Instead, the government will promote a "self-discipline code" that will encourage, but not mandate, bloggers to register under their own names, the report said, citing draft guidelines published by the Internet Society of China.

Even more encouraging, this shows at least a bit of responsiveness of the Chinese government to the nation's people.

Gorbachev's era of glasnost may have come to an end. Putin's government has moved from stealthy (and deadly) instances of shutting up critics to outright regulation of the country's press.

And speaking of the former, England has announced charges against an ex-KGB agent whom they believe is responsible for the polonium-210 poisoning death of Putin-critic Alexander Litvinenko (remember him?). But Russia is not expected to extradite the accused, so the crime will likely go unpunished.

So it goes.

It's quite the task:

- Palestinian Sunni militants attack Israel; Israel responds

- Hamas battles Fatah in Palestine

- Hezbollah attacks Israel from Lebanon; Israel responds

- Hezbollah threatens violence against Lebanese government

- Lebanese army battles Palestinian militants outside refugee camp there

- Sunnis and Shia attack each other in Iraq

- Sunnis and Shia attack Kurds in Iraq

- Sunnis and Shia attack American troops in Iraq

- Moderates battle Islamists in Pakistan

- Taliban forces fight against the government in Afghanistan

- and more...

How do you stabilize a region whose people are so intent on killing each other?

I realize that I'm a bit late to be blogging on the death of Jerry Falwell, but I prefer to let a man rest in peace. A lot of bloggers and pundits used Falwell's death to demonize him, and I deplore that practice.

What I will comment on is the rise of the evangelical-political movement, of which Falwell was one of the central protagonists. (I now refuse to use the phrase "religious right" because it encompasses people such as myself who consider themselves conservative and religious but who do not agree with all of the positions or the tactics of the evangelical-politicos).

What may be surprising to some is that I'm torn as to whether the rise of the evangelicals has been a good or bad thing for the nation. On one hand is my principle criticism of the movement: it has combined religion with politics in a manner that is corrupting both. The effect has been to polarize the nation's political parties between the self-proclaimed religious versus the supposedly non-religious. This polarization is more than unhealthy; it is dangerous.

On the other hand is my realization that the evangelical-political movement was a response to a pre-existing social movement, the tenets of which were often harmful to religion and the moral fabric of society. The progressive movement in the 60's and 70's--a step-child of the feminist and civil rights movements--pulled prayer out of many public schools, resulted in no-fault divorce laws across the country, and created a "right" to abortion-on-demand.

Whether these changes were right or wrong, they created a natural political response in those who found the changes repugnant. This is not to excuse some of the tactics of the evangelical-politicos but to explain their genesis.

My hope, perhaps naieve, is that this polarization will break down in the coming decades, that a balance will be struck between tolerance, equality, and social values. Let's rein in no-fault divorce and support the stability of the American family. let's recognize the dignity of gays and lesbians and support their unions. Let's put the abortion debate back into the democratic process in the states.

What we need is the right person or persons to lead this movement.

So the Senate Democratic leadership and President Bush have crafted an immigration bill, with some compromises built-in to gain the support of conservatives in the House and Senate. How good is the proposal?

I'd say it's a mixed-bag, but definitely better than no bill at all. Here are the good and bad points of the proposed immigration bill...

The good:

- Creates a trigger mechanism that must be fulfilled before other reforms take place. The trigger includes enhancements to the physical border security as well as to workplace enforcement and immigration identification cards. This makes sense. What good is any immigration reform package, if we lack the ability to enforce and implement the reforms?

- Gives restricted amnesty to current illegals (probationary until the trigger mechanism is completed in about 18 months). No matter what the conservative immigration hardliners say, it is impossible and immoral to deport 12 million immigrants, most of whom have family members here who are U.S. citizens. Are we ready to split up millions of families? No way. Yes these illegals broke our laws but they only did so to make for themselves a livelihood, and because our businesses openly lured them in. Current illegals would have to register for Z-visas and pay fees to be placed on the list for permanent residency.


The bad:

- The amnesty restrictions are too tough in some ways and not tough enough in other ways. They require heads of households to return to their home nation before their family can apply for permanent resident status... That simply makes no sense and it will keep families from even applying. The bill creates fines up to $5000 for illegal families. This is too high and will also keep illegals from simply choosing to remain undocumented. On the other hand, the bill should provide that illegals holding the new z-Visa should be automatically deported if they have committed a felony.

- Creates a points-based system that favors permanent residency for immigrants based on job skills rather than family relations. Family points make more sense because they keep families together and enhance community. The new job skills model just makes it seem like we're using the immigrants as labor mules.


The mixed:

- Creates a guest worker program admitting around 400,000 alien workers who can stay for 2-year stints. It is important that we somehow address the demand for aliens to enter this nation, but I don't think the guest worker programs meets this demand. We should rather increase dramatically the number of permanent resident and citizenship grants. Also, the confusing guest worker requirements will likely be impossible to enforce. Guest workers will simply overstay their stints and remain here undocumented.

My affinity for author G. K. Chesterton is well-known. The man was a brilliant writer and prominent but eccentric Catholic apologist. So when Andrew Sullivan called Chesterton's Catholicism "infantile," my gander was raised.

What is the supposed flaw of Chesterton's theological defense? It's that he takes comfort in viewing the world as a battle between good and evil forces and sides with the good forces. For shame! According to Sullivan, anyone who does not view the world with complete doubt and a hodgepodge of uncertainties is an infant.

This photo absolutely juxtaposes ugly and beauty... What in the world was Laura Quinn thinking??



This photo is featured in an example photo album on Harcar Photography's website. Please visit their website to view the whole album. Some other good photos in it...

Heavy multivitamin use in males has been linked to a higher incidence of a particularly deadly form of prostate cancer, according to this new study. I've stressed caution in regards to vitamins before.

One problem with vitamin pills is that not all of the substances in them are readily absorbed into the body and thus don't carry as great a nutritional benefit as expected. Another problem is that some of these multivitamins contain much higher levels of substances than recommended by the FDA, such as 500% of selenium.

Notice I said "crises," not "crisis." Besides Russia's socio-political problems, the nation also has become an incubator for dangerous diseases.

One is an extremely resistant strain of TB that has spread through Russia's prison system. Some doctors say it has already morphed into a form completely resistant to all of our current anti-biotics.

The second is an AIDS outbreak. Russia says it now has 1.3 million people infected with HIV, far higher than the number of those officially registered there.

Many Democrats make the mistake of confusing support for a woman's right to choose an abortion with support of Roe v. Wade. Overturning Roe would not suddenly criminalize abortion across the country, of course, but merely leave the matter up to the states to decide on their own.

But many people don't realize this. When educated about the implications and actual holding of Roe, public support for overturning Roe goes up significantly.

He can definitely be a jerk, but it's hard to criticize his abilities to run a tech company. When asked at the Apple shareholders meeting whether he would consider spending money to hire more engineers to keep future software delays down, he responded this way:

"I wish developing great products was as easy as writing a check. If that was the case, Microsoft would have great products."

There's some truth to that.

I've already seen this AP article via a few blogs and newspapers, with a headline like this: "U.S. Divorce Rate Lowest Since 1970"

Unfortunately, while the headline might be true in a narrow since, it is utterly misleading. Lies, damn lies, and statistics.

The problem is this: the per capita divorce rate is what the article references. Thus the divorce rate could be down simply because the marriage rate is down! The real rate we should be concerned with is divorces per marriages.

Thankfully the article at least touches on this statistical concern, mentioning that "...divorces are down primarily because more couples live together without marrying."

But we all know what they say... 68% of statistics are made up on the spot.

Every time Fred Thompson makes a statement, his candidacy becomes more attractive in my eyes. In this column, he ...gasp!... says that the Constitution matters, and he lays an eloquent argument as to why the Supreme Court's likely hearing of a case involving D.C.'s gun ban is a positive development.

So he cares about federalism and the 2nd Amendment. Let's see what other constitutional issues that he's on the right side of.

The best fight scene in the history of cinema... spliced in with the South Park parody of it:

One of President Bush's most controversial procedures has been his use of Presidential signing statements that accompany his signing of laws passed by Congress. The statements sometimes say in essence that the President will not enforce portions of the particular law that the President finds unconstitutional.

Critics say that the President should just veto bills if he finds them unconstitutional, rather than releasing these signing statements. I agree.

Now Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi has threatened to challenge the President in court, if he releases a signing statement in relation to the pending Iraq-funding bill.

While I find the signing statements against the spirit of the Constitution, I think the Supreme Court will likely refuse to hear such a case if brought before it, and rightfully so.

First, cautious justices on the court would likely employ the political question doctrine which urges restraint in dealing with political matters between branches of government. Second, the court could determine that the case is not ripe as involving no actual case or controversy. The Court, in this scenario, would want to wait until the President actually refuses to enforce some specific portion of the bill.

Popular Science has a well-researched article projecting what fuels will be powering our cars and trucks in 20 years. The winners in the projection: diesel and plug-in hybrids. The losers: ethanol and hydrogen. I definitely agree.

But read the article. It's interesting.

Sometimes genius copies genius:

Watch as the tornado forms...

When Congress (then led by the GOP) passed the RealID Act, it brought the nation one step away from having a full-fledged national identification card. And as Congress has done before--see the national drinking age--Congress has attempted to coerce the states into implementing RealID's security requirements by denying access to airline tickets and federal government sources to individuals not holding a RealID compliant card.

Some states are fighting back, including Massachusetts surprisingly enough.

Six men currently living in the U.S., 5 of which from the Middle East, have been arrested for a plot to kill U.S. soldiers at Fort Dix in New Jersey.

Authorities believe these men were acting on their own and are not connected to Al Qaeda.

...

The treat of terrorism is real. The minute we let our guard down, we will be hit again.

I just watched the Meet the Press podcast in which Tim Russert interviewed former CIA director George Tenet. Given the media coverage of Tenet's new book, I expected Tenet to do a bunch of finger pointing at the Bush administration. But he did very little of that. Tenet's problem could best be summed up with this maxim:

Try to please all the people all the time and you will end up pleasing nobody ever.

Columns and speeches such as this one in the National Review make former Senator Fred Thompson look more Reaganesque every day. This is not to say that Thompson is a clone of Reagan, nor even that that's what we want.

This is about being positive about America and its role in the world. Thompson noted the recent study showing Afghanistan's remarkable improvement in Afghanistan's infant mortality, adding:

The next time I'm reminded of the suffering women endure in too many radicalized Muslim cultures, or apathy toward their plight back here at home, I'm going to conjure up the image of 40 or 50 thousand Muslim mothers smiling into the faces of healthy babies. You might try the same -- and remember, while you're doing it, that these babies would not be alive today if it were not for the U.S. and Coalition soldiers.

Mitch Daniels cited a column by my favorite master of vocabulary George Will, when he vetoed a law easily passed by Indiana's General Assembly that would have required interior designers to register with the state and to meet certain educational and training guidelines.

The reason why Will opposes such laws, and the reason why Daniels vetoed this law, is that they are economically anti-competitive. Absent a really important reason, such as public safety, these laws should be avoided.

Hat tip to In the Agora for the story...

The good: France's voter turnout for its presidential election was as high as 85%

More of the good: 53% of the voters were sane enough to not vote for the Socialist candidate. Instead they voted for a conservative who has vowed to cut taxes and to treat the U.S. more like an ally.

The bad: showing complete disrespect for democracy, French socialists have rioted, resulting in over 600 arrests, hundred of burned cars, and a couple dozen injured police officers.

USAToday has a list of 25 reasons why the internet has come to dominate how we access information. I won't list them all, but here are some of the strongest ones:

1. World Wide Web [well duh]
2. E-mail [double duh]
4. AOL [it did push the net into a lot of households...]
6. Google
11. Instant messaging
17. Flash [Adobe/Macromedia's Flash technology is what powered the YouTube revolution]
19. Napster [now I'd add iTunes to the list]
20. YouTube
22. Bloggers

I saw that headline this morning, and I just casually skipped over it. It's a sad statement regarding Islamic leadership in the Middle East, that I've become so desensitized to such horrendous statements. Here's the pertinent part of the article:

Sheik Ahmad Bahr, acting Speaker of the Palestinian Legislative Council, declared during a Friday sermon at a Sudan mosque that America and Israel will be annihilated and called upon Allah to kill Jews and Americans "to the very Last One." Following are excerpts from the sermon that took place last month, courtesy of MEMRI.

Ahmad Bahr began: "'You will be victorious' on the face of this planet. You are the masters of the world on the face of this planet. Yes, [the Koran says that] 'you will be victorious,' but only 'if you are believers.' Allah willing, 'you will be victorious,' while America and Israel will be annihilated. I guarantee you that the power of belief and faith is greater than the power of America and Israel. They are cowards who are eager for life, while we are eager for death for the sake of Allah. That is why America's nose was rubbed in the mud in Iraq, in Afghanistan, in Somalia, and everywhere."

So you've heard about all those missing bees around the nation. Well, it turns out they're all congregating outside an Arkansas hospital...

An hour before my second-to-last final...ever:

1. Requiem for a Dream soundtrack (Lord of the Rings mix)
2. Trans-Siberian Orchestra - Wizards in Winter
3. Trans-Siberian Orchestra - Christmas Eve in Sarajevo
4. Metallica - The Call of Ktulu (off "S&M")