For my post on the horserace polling data for the Democrats, see my previous post...

While I concluded that Hillary is almost a lock for the Dems, the Republican race is much much closer.

National

I'd say the Republican race is a 3-way battle between Giuliani, Romney, and Thompson. Huckabee could play the dark horse, but his effect is much more likely simply drag points away from Romney in certain states. Giuliani's lead over Thompson is just under 13%, with Romney and McCain packed tightly with Thompson.



But the national numbers are even less meaningful with the Republicans than with the Dems, so let's break it down by states.

Iowa

With Iowa we see why Giuliani's strong national numbers don't mean anything. His polling numbers have steadily declined there, while Romney's have skyrocketed to put him in first and over 13% over Giuliani. Thompson and Huckabee have both gained at the expense of McCain, who has dropped to 5th in Iowa. I think that a lot of evangelicals are starting to throw their support behind Romney, as Giuliani is simply unacceptable to them. McCain's drop is incredible, but I just don't think he can do anything to stand out. But I don't think any of the candidates HAVE to win Iowa.



New Hampshire

New Hampshire is close, but not quite a dead heat. Giuliani's numbers have remained steady, but are only good enough for 2nd right now. Again, McCain's numbers have dropped significantly, while Romney has improved to 1st (by only 6%). Thompson's not as strong here, probably because Ron Paul drags support away from him. Huckabee's numbers aren't that strong here, but are on the slight incline. If he steals support from Romney, Giuliani could grab a victory here. If not, Romney could easily win the first two primaries. But even if that happens, I wouldn't consider Giuliani out of the race by any means.



South Carolina

South Carolina is also a tight race. Fred Thompson has skyrocketed in the polls in the short time he's been a candidate, propelling him to #1. My guess is he appeals to South Carolinians' southern style. Until Thompson took the lead, Giuliani held the lead, but now Thompson leads him by 3%. I'm surprised to see a New Yorker have so much strength here. Perhaps, and this is speculation, they'd prefer to see a New Yorker more than a Mormon. Although, Romney and Huckabee have both been increasing their numbers, but largely at the expense of McCain. Romney is down 7% on Giuliani here.

My prediction is that Thompson's strength won't last here and Giuliani will take South Carolina. If he managed to take New Hampshire, he'd be in the driver seat. But this will likely be his first win, and he'll be in a tough battle with Romney.



Florida

Though Romney has been gaining on Giuliani here, it's been too slow for him. He's a full 13% behind Rudy, with Thompson just above him in 2nd position. Romney may have a shot here because of momentum from earlier primaries, but I'm calling it a long shot.



Other states

So at this point in the Republican race, Romney and Giuliani will probably have separated themselves from the rest of the field. Either they will be next to even or Romney will have a surmountable lead, making the race extremely interesting.

New York. Giuliani's a lock here, with a 38% lead over McCain and Romney even further behind in 3rd. NY's gotta lot of delegates, and that puts Giuliani in the lead over Romney, either by a slim or a slightly larger margin. Same goes for California, with Giuliani's lead being 17% over Romney and Thompson. These two states make work very hard for Romney. And that brings us to Michigan. I firmly believe that if Romney has any hope in the race, he has to win Michigan. Right now, though, Michigan is too close to call, with the big 3 Republicans deadlocked.





So what's my prediction? Well I'm not making one. I've painted this as a two-way race between Giuliani and Romney, but Thompson shouldn't be counted out just yet. The data is thinner on him and it's early enough for him to establish an upward trend. His strong national numbers show a lot of potential. The question is, who does he take more from, Giuliani or Romney? I'd guess it's about split.

Check out Pollster.com for a thorough collection of Republican and Democratic primary polling data. The site breaks it down by state and by many other categories.

Here are some trends that stand out to me for the Democrats. I'll cover the Republicans in the next post...


National

Hillary Clinton is distancing herself from the other Dems. She has a sizable lead in the national poll, 45% to Obama's 17.8%, but the national primary numbers don't always mean that much. So let's look at the early Democratic primary states; they also indicate strength for Hillary.

Iowa

In Iowa, Hillary has gone from third place in the polls earlier in 2007 to first place. Edwards dropped from #1 to #3. Obama's deficit to Hillary is only about 5% though and Edwards is only 2% behind that. As we'll see from the other state polls, if Hillary wins Iowa, the race is over. If Obama wins, he can build strength and name recognition to battle in other states. If Edwards wins Iowa, then the battle moves to the next state, but Obama's position will be fairly bleak.



Other early states

In New Hampshire, Hillary leads Obama by just over 20% and number continues to increase. In South Carolina, Hillary leads him by almost 13% and the trend for her is also upwards. In Florida, Hillary's lead is 26% and increasing. In fact, in most states I looked at, Hillary's lead over Obama is greater than Obama's lead over Edwards.

According to veteran investor Jim Rogers, our economy has already entered a recession.

I disagree. Now I'm not a veteran investor like he is, but the evidence for a recession just doesn't seem to be there. The housing market is taking a significant correction; nobody doubts that. But so far its problems have not spread to the economy as a whole. Perhaps most significantly, the retail sector is still okay. If anything, that shows the amazing resilience of the U.S. economy.

GDP growth is still positive. Until it flatlines, by definition we're not in a recession. Whether or not the housing sector impacts future retail spending enough to drag us into a recession will be seen.

At this point the big victim of the housing collapse is the financial sector. By securitizing these sub-prime mortgages, these financial lenders opened themselves up to risk, without fully understanding that risk.

For two reasons I don't see the financial sector problems as spreading. First, the Federal Reserve has responded with appropriate interest rate cuts. Second, our economy is not isolated but rather part of a larger global economy. Those two factors will combine to cushion the blow. This doesn't come without a cost--namely, we see the dollar's value dropping steadily.

The falling dollar doesn't worry me yet. Currency valuation is a double-edged sword and some have been arguing that a softening of the dollar would actually help the U.S. economy more than hurt it.

Once the housing correction is complete, the value of the dollar should stabilize. People just need to keep themselves from overreacting.

This is pretty accurate, I'd say ;-)

According to this NYTimes article, Shiites in Iraq are beginning to turn against extremist militia just as the Sunnis started turning against Al Qaeda and other extremists in Al Anbar:

While the Mahdi militia still controls most Shiite neighborhoods, early evidence that Shiites are starting to oppose some parts of the militia is surfacing on American bases. Shiite sheiks, the militia’s traditional base, are beginning to contact Americans, much as Sunni tribes reached out early this year, refocusing one entire front of the war, officials said, and the number of accurate tips flowing into American bases has soared.

Shiites are "participating like they never have before," said Maj. Mark Brady, of the Multi-National Division-Baghdad Reconciliation and Engagement Cell, which works with tribes.

"Something has got to be not right if they are going to risk calling a tips hot line or approaching a J.S.S.,” he said, referring to the Joint Security Stations, the American neighborhood mini-bases set up after the troop increase this year.

“Everything is changing," said Ali, a businessman in the heavily Shiite neighborhood of Ur, in eastern Baghdad, who, like most of those interviewed, did not want his full name used for fear of being attacked. “Now in our area for the first time everyone say, ‘To hell with Mahdi Army.'"

This is good news. Numerous leading Muslim clerics, including Sheik Ali Gomaa the grand mufti of Egypt and Ayatollah Mostafa Mohaghegh Damad a Shiite Muslim from Iran, have written a letter reaching out to Christian leaders, including the Pope.

That, according to this AFP article...

I actually don't have a problem with this--at least if it's being done for the right reason. The Empire State Building already celebrates Christmas and Hannukah with similar lightings. If the authorities want to celebrate the end of Ramadan, in order to be inclusive for another religious group in America, then that's great.

But if they decided to do this out of some belief that it will appease any radical Muslims (here or elsewhere), then they are sadly mistaken.

I'm willing to give them the benefit of the doubt, however, and I find it a fitting response to radicalism. Essentially it's a bold statement of freedom in America: "we were attacked by Islamic radicals, but we still celebrate religious freedom and diversity for all."

I have written before on promising research into cures for diabetes, an epidemic in this country in its type-2 form.

Now researchers have identified an enzyme that is responsible for type-2 diabetes and say they could be 10 years away from having an effective treatment for it.

This is good news, but obesity, one of type-2 diabetes' most common causes, also is responsible for numerous other ailments. We must concentrate on the this root problem.

The formula is simple:

rising global and national energy demands + intent to stabilize greenhouse gas production + lack of feasible alternative energy sources

=

Building new nuclear reactors

...

And it's not just a formula. It's really happening.

The numbers aren't good for biofuels. Corn-based ethanol is derived from an extremely inefficient production process--yielding only 1.3 units of energy for every 1 unit needed for the process. Soy-based biodiesel is modestly better at 1.9 to 1.

Diesel also has an advantage in that it is more efficient in terms of miles per gallon. Finally, it also reduces emissions by a greater amount.

But both soy-based biodiesel and corn-based ethanol suffer from the same massive shortcoming: neither can even come close to meeting the demands of America's auto and truck fleet. "If all American corn and soybean production were dedicated to biofuels, that fuel would replace only 12 percent of gas demand and 6 percent of diesel demand, the study notes." (soy beans have a lower per-acre yield than corn, hence the difference in number)

Cellulosic ethanol and bio-diesel produced from waste might be useful alternative fuels, but more research needs to be done on these.

Thus the only possible advantage of these bio-fuels, the reduction in dependence on foreign oil, is a complete fallacy. End the subsidies on these fuels immediately, Washington. It's the only sensible policy.

Well, I've been saying it for awhile, and we all knew it was going to happen, but we now know how Putin plans on retaining power in Russia for many more years. He has suggested a change in Russia's government where the next President would have diminished power, and he would retain some power with the new title of Prime Minister.

The man has made it his aim to oppose the United States with soft power. He is converting his country into a fascist state. Another blow against democracy.

It appears that Burma's junta government has put down the Saffron Revolution, with the monks peacefully marching in the nation's streets.

Some reports say that thousands have been killed. Others say that number have been imprisoned. It will take time for more concrete information to come in, but unfortunately we will probably never know the full extent of what occurred.

One blow against democracy.